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Initially, Trump gave the impression to take a firm approach regarding Ukraine. After making warnings of "severe ramifications" last August should Putin continued hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump finally enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly affected Putin's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, that was drafted by US and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's initiative would essentially favor the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the plan effectively compromise that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a section of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. But, Putin's invasion is not merely about controlling a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear goal to destroy it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that Putin's growing autocracy denies them.

Border Concessions

While freezing in position the currently divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a open path to Kyiv if he eventually decide to restart the conflict.

Military Reductions

Then, in a move that would facilitate future hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the plan sets no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, the plan asserts: "Any radical belief system and activities must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his regime by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "establish in law its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should we believe Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the plan promises a "strong unified military response" in case Russia restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the details vary from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from restoring his weakened military, restocking, and reinvading.

World Reaction

Another supplementary accord according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a military response. Yet unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against additional invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's attacks, something they have {not