Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
