A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
